In looking at “How Free Agency Changed NBA Team Building” for Nylon Calculus I examined every draft pick from 1989 to 2015 and sorted them into five groups by their career achievements: MVPs, All-Stars, average starters, solid pros, and washouts. Here’s the pick-by-pick history of the success and failures of these NBA draft picks.

nba-draft-history-pick-by-pick

From there, you can reorganize the blocks to create a pseudo-histogram of player achievement by draft position.

nba-draft-history-histogram

And, finally, you can model the probability of NBA success by draft slot using a series of logistic models, which are visualized below.

nba-draft-history-model

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